Professor Paul Palley's
          Economics Seminars

Surveys are a very valuable resource for organizations whether they are businesses, non-profits, government agencies, or political parties. They help the surveyor when they assess the population of interest by identifying the interests, characteristics, perceptions, likes and dislikes, and expectations of those who fill out the surveys as long as the research process is well designed and executed. This means that a random sampling process is used in order to avoid biased results, the survey questions are well thought out with an eye on the hypothesis tests that will be conducted, and the analysis and interpretation of the data is carried out correctly. Problems do arise, though, if the researcher does not completely have access to the population they are interested in. Here is an important example from the 2008 election campaign.

I have selected two articles in the New York Times about the impact of increasing cell phone usage on the ability of political pollsters to assess the opinions of voters. The problem is that these pollsters are not able to as easily contact voters who use cell phones, and as a result this raises issues about whether or not they are clearly surveying the population of interest. One article, written by Megan Thee appeared in the December 7, 2007 issue of the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/us/07polling.html?scp=14&sq=political%20polls%20&%20cell%20phones&st=cse). The author points out the fact that public opinion researchers have historically relied on their home land-line telephones which have the advantage of being geographically defined by the area codes. Cell phones are not as clearly geographically based, and those who use cell phones are less likely to participate in a survey. After all, you pay to use your cell phone by the minute.

The problems associated with cell phone usage go beyond these points. Few drivers on the road would want to see those around them on their cell phones completing a survey, including political polls. Those who primarily use cell phones tend to be younger and they are usually less likely to vote possibly making the issue less important, but is that true in 2008? The Pew Research Center completed a survey showing the differences in the political views between land-line users and cell phone users are not significant and as a result not adversely affecting the results of political polls. The issue is that the number of people, especially younger people who rely on cell phones, is growing. The problem is constructing a survey design to remedy these concerns. An article by the same author that appeared on July 23, 2008 (http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/cellphone-only-it-holds-little-sway-in-polls/?scp=6&sq=political%20polls%20&%20cell%20phones&st=cse) follows up on these points. She reported that at that time pollsters were regularly undertaking cell phone surveys to increase the accuracy of their polls. The Pew Research Center has found that the “cell phone only” cohort differs greatly from the general public, but the “cell phone mostly” cohort does not. The “cell phone only” cohort more strongly supported Barack Obama than the general voting public, but is considered to be less likely to vote.

See the following as examples of opinion pollsters to learn more about their process; Pew Research Center (http://people-press.org/), Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx), Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/), Kaiser Family Foundation (http://www.kff.org/), Survey Research Center (http://www.src.isr.umich.edu/), and Zogby (http://www.zogby.com/).

Current economic conditions and anticipated future economic conditions affect strategic plans, the prices that firms charge, choices related to investments in labor and capital, and finances. In addition we know that government fiscal and monetary policies can greatly impact the economy. Furthermore, data related to economic indicators including real GDP, interest rates, the prices of goods and services, the unemployment rate, exchange rates, and other variables will be used to support decision-making and the formulation of forecasts. Historical economic data facilitates efforts to evaluate the impact of economic conditions in the past on organizations and as a result makes it easier to understand the impact of forecasts on organizations. Where can someone go to easily obtain this kind of important economic information? In fact, much of this information is available to you free or for relatively little money on the internet.

The internet is a source of a tremendous amount of information for economists and professionals in all fields, including real estate. Data, forecasts, and news related to the real estate and other markets, interest rates, employment, population growth, income, price indices, and consumer confidence are all readily available. Political issues that may affect the economy are monitored and debated online on an ongoing basis. The economy and financial markets are analyzed by economists and other professionals, and their reports are readily available. The list presented below includes excellent sources of information whether you are interested in the global economy or the economy in the United States, or financial markets. Databases available from the United States government, reports and data produced by the Federal Reserve, and business and real estate oriented web sites are also listed. The web sites that I have listed below do not represent a comprehensive list, but should help you get started.

Historical economic data contributes to the understanding of important historical economic events. It also facilitates the analysis of how changing economic trends affect businesses, industries, and investors. Some excellent resources for historical economic data include; the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (http://www.federalreserve.gov/); the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (http://research.stlouisfed.org/); the United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://bea.gov/index.htm). The United States Department of Commerce provides other very good sources of data including Economics Indicators and Economics Links (https://www.esa.doc.gov/index.cfm). Other very good resources include; the United States Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/); and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://stats.bls.gov/). The National Association of Home Builders makes available data and information related to the national economy, the local and national home building industry, and the prices and availability of building materials (http://www.nahb.com/). Data related to energy issues and energy prices are made available by the United States Department Energy’s Energy Information Agency (http://www.eia.doe.gov/). See also the International Energy Agency (http://www.iea.org/).

After an analyst has completed an analysis of historical economic data, understands the impact of historical economic events, and evaluates the quality of the data, then the analysis of the impact of future adjustments in the economy becomes easier. Excellent resources are available online that provide forecasts of key economic indicators. Some of these resources include the government; the Congressional Budget Office (http://www.cbo.gov/) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Livingston Survey, the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations (http://www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/liv/index.html). Industry specific resources include; the Mortgage Bankers Association of America (http://www.mbaa.org/); National Association of Home Builders (http://www.nahb.org/); and the National Association of Realtors® (http://www.realtor.org/). Other online resources that are available include; Global Insight (http://www.globalinsight.com/) and the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) (http://www.nabe.com/).

Given the growing importance of trade on the economy, and the accompanying progression of globalization, it is helpful to review websites focused on global economic conditions and trade. These may include; the World Trade Organization (http://www.wto.org/); the European Union (http://europa.eu.int/); and the European Central Bank (http://www.ecb.int/ecb/html/index.en.html). Other available resources include; the World Bank (http://www.worldbank.org/); International Monetary Fund (http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm); and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (http://www.oecd.org/home/0,3305,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html)

There are also organizations that are dedicated political policy research that includes economic policy and analysis. These organizations make available to readers articles and reports focused on a wide variety of topics including economics and economic data. Reviewing these reports provide perspectives from a variety of economic and political viewpoints. See the Economic Policy Institute (http://www.epinet.org/); Hoover Institution (http://www.hoover.org/); Center for Economic and Policy Research (http://www.cepr.net/); and the Brookings Institution (http://www.brookings.edu/); Heritage Foundation (http://www.heritage.org/); and RGE Monitor, A Roubini Global Economics Service (http://www.rgemonitor.com/).